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California could be hit by potent late-season storm this week

Autor: Anthony Edwards
The Weather Prediction Center forecasts 1 to 4 inches of rain along the California coast through Sunday afternoon. A storm Wednesday is expected to take aim at Northern California, with a storm Friday through Sunday targeting Southern California.

The Weather Prediction Center forecasts 1 to 4 inches of rain along the California coast through Sunday afternoon. A storm Wednesday is expected to take aim at Northern California, with a storm Friday through Sunday targeting Southern California.

Baron/Lynx

After mostly dry conditions Monday and Tuesday, a storm is expected to bring rain and snow to Northern California from Wednesday through Thursday. A short break is possible Thursday night into early Friday, but a second storm Friday through Sunday will likely target Central and Southern California.

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While the details about the second storm are unclear, several inches of rain between Santa Barbara and San Diego could cause flooding in areas that have already been hit hard this winter. “There is relatively high confidence in a significant late-season storm,” the National Weather Service Los Angeles office wrote in its forecast discussion.

Wednesday storm

Quiet weather is on tap across Northern California on Monday and Tuesday as a weak area of high pressure moves in, resulting in dry conditions and a mix of sun and clouds. Highs will be in the upper 50s at the coast and mid-60s inland.

On Wednesday, a cold front is expected to swing across the northern half of the state, resulting in rain showers in the Bay Area from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. A quarter- to half-inch of rain is expected in the Bay Area and Sacramento Valley with this system, while up to 2 inches could fall in Mendocino, Humboldt and Del Norte counties. South-southwest gusts of 20 to 30 mph are also possible as the cold front passes.

Weather models predict a cold front will move across the Bay Area on Wednesday evening, raising wind gusts and rain chances.

Weather models predict a cold front will move across the Bay Area on Wednesday evening, raising wind gusts and rain chances.

Baron/Lynx

In the Sierra Nevada, moderate to locally major winter weather impacts are possible with this storm. Interstate 80 over Donner Summit and Highway 50 over Echo Summit could pick up 1 to 2 feet of snow from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night, with greater totals at the highest peaks. Gusts of 35 to 50 mph are possible along roadways, stronger at ridgetops.

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Weekend atmospheric river

Thursday night should be relatively quiet throughout the state, but the break is likely to be short-lived. A powerful low-pressure system is expected to approach the California coast Friday, and it will probably be wetter and windier than the Wednesday system. More than an inch of rain is possible in parts of the Bay Area, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph at the coast.

The low-pressure system is expected to move south Friday night, drawing a narrow plume of moisture from the subtropics, known as an atmospheric river. The combination of the juicy atmosphere and nearby low-pressure system could result in an extended period of rain across Southern California, from Friday night through Sunday.

An atmospheric river storm is possible in Southern California next weekend, which could cause flooding around Santa Barbara and Los Angeles.

An atmospheric river storm is possible in Southern California next weekend, which could cause flooding around Santa Barbara and Los Angeles.

Baron/Lynx

While it’s too early for an exact rainfall forecast, several inches of rain is possible in Santa Barbara and Los Angeles. Mountainous regions can expect additional snow with the weekend storm. Stay tuned for forecast updates.

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Monday breakdown

San Francisco: Partly sunny skies are expected throughout the city, with highs in the upper 50s in the Richmond and Sunset districts and around 60 in the Mission District, Russian Hill, downtown and SoMa. West winds could gust 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon and evening, especially near the Golden Gate. Lows will be around 50 with partly cloudy skies.

North Bay: Drier weather is on tap for the North Bay, with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs will be in the lower 60s in Mill Valley, Vallejo and San Rafael and the mid-60s in Santa Rosa, Napa, Fairfield and Vacaville. Wind gusts up to 20 mph are possible near the delta in the afternoon and evening. Lows will be in the lower to mid-40s with a mix of stars and clouds.

East Bay: A mix of sun and clouds is expected. Highs will be in the lower 60s in Oakland, Berkeley, Hayward, Fremont and the Tri-Valley and the mid-60s in Concord and Walnut Creek. West winds could gust up to 20 mph along the bay shoreline in the afternoon and early evening. Lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s with partly cloudy skies.

Pacific Coast and Peninsula: Clouds and sun will play tug-of-war over the Peninsula, with partly sunny skies. Highs will be in the upper 50s in Daly City, Pacifica and Half Moon Bay and the lower 60s in San Mateo and Redwood City. Afternoon gusts up to 20 mph are possible at the coast. Lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s with partly cloudy skies.

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South Bay and Santa Cruz: Alternating sunshine and passing clouds are expected, with highs in the lower 60s in the Santa Clara Valley and mid-50s to near 60 in Santa Cruz, Scotts Valley and Boulder Creek. Lows will be in the upper 40s in the valleys and at the coast, and lower to mid-40s in the Santa Cruz Mountains.

Anthony Edwards is a newsroom meteorologist at The San Francisco Chronicle.

He joins the Chronicle from the University of Washington where he was previously the president of the campus weather forecasting team and an editor at the student newspaper, The Daily UW.

Edwards enjoys exploring San Francisco’s parks, playing tennis, hiking, swimming and attending a ballgame when the Mariners visit the Giants and the Athletics.

He can be reached at Anthony.Edwards@sfchronicle.com.

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