Weather – Texas 2036

Autor: Texas 2036
extreme weather
in texas

Texas State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon, supported by Texas 2036, will release an update to the “Future Trends of Extreme Weather in Texas” report in early 2024.

Dr. Nielsen-Gammon led the team of A&M researchers, who analyzed decades of Texas weather records to project climate trends out to 2036, the year of Texas’ bicentennial.

What’s new in this update? Here’s a first look on the key takeaways from the upcoming report.


Extreme rainfall has become more frequent and severe and is expected to worsen. As a result, there will be a significant increase in urban flooding — as much as 30-50% more than occurred over the last half of the 20th century.
Hurricane intensity is expected to increase significantly. Due to sea level rise, the risk of hurricane storm surge in some places along the Texas Gulf Coast may in 2050 be twice as high as it was around 1900.


Slide The number of 100-degree days has actually tripled over the past 40 years — with triple-digit days now common all across Texas.

The expected average temperature in 2036 will be about 3 degrees warmer than the average over the last half of the last century – and Texans should expect extreme monthly summertime temperature trends to increase.

Texas faces increased drought severity, as higher temperatures increase evaporation rates.

Areas such as East Texas are at increased risk for wildfires.


Four charts from the 2024 update you need to know.

2022 saw a significant number of triple-digit days. 2023 was worse.

The long-term trend in the number of triple-digit days marches upward. 2023 witnessed record-high temperatures across the state continuing the trend described in the 2021 report. The 2021 report noted that the number and frequency of triple-digit days doubled since the 1970s. As of now, the average number of triple-digit days has tripled.

In 2023 we set the record of the average hottest temperature of a summer month.

In 2023, the average hottest temperature was 106°F, surpassing the previous record set in 2011. The primary difference from 2011 was that 2023’s heat persisted through most of September, while 2011 had already turned somewhat milder by then. The summer of 2022 also had some high extremes.

In a unique twist, Texas experienced the warmest coolest temperatures this summer.

Texans know the only break from summer heat happens at night. This summer cooler summer nights were harder to come by. In 2023, the coldest days in July and August got down to 64°F on average, which is the warmest on record, and 2022 ranked fifth warmest.

Following the extreme cold of 2021, the year 2022 was relatively mild, although temperatures did drop to their second coldest value of the 2000s so far.

Notably, 2023 was the mildest winter on record, as measured by the coldest minimum temperature observed on average in Texas. This is consistent with the warming trend that shows up in all seasons in Texas.



of Texas voters expressed concern that weather-related events in Texas such as wildfires, floods, drought and hurricanes may increase what they pay for property insurance. (Texas Voter Poll, Aug. 2023)


of Texas voters think that the weather has changed over the past 10 years.  (Texas Voter Poll, Aug. 2023)


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